SA国际传媒

Alarmist headlines abound about how AI and robots are stealing jobs from humans.

The fears are spreading beyond concern over blue-collar jobs. Now there are greater worries that even white-collar jobs that require additional training and education will be replaced by artificial intelligence and AI-powered robots.

SA国际传媒 News turned to AI expert, CEO and Founder , to get his thoughts on the matter. Austin-based AI startup SparkCognition 颅has raised $56.5 million over the past year and $73.5 million since its inception in 2013. Husain is also the author of In 2016, he was ranked among the by .

On top of that, Husain is also a prolific inventor with 22 awarded and over 40 pending U.S. patent applications to his credit. In 2013, a low-cost computing platform Husain invented was added to the collection of the Computer History Museum in Mountain View.

So what does he have to say about AI鈥檚 impact on jobs?

Well, he鈥檚 realistic.

鈥淚f you take the long view, it鈥檚 really quite likely that most of the jobs that we see around us today will disappear and will be done by machines,鈥� he told SA国际传媒 News. 鈥淥ne hundred plus years ago, half the population was focused on agriculture. And today it鈥檚 less than 2 percent, but yet we鈥檙e feeding five times the number of people. Obviously, there has been a several hundred-fold increase in the productivity there which is another fancy way of saying there鈥檚 much, much fewer jobs. And this will continue.鈥�

Picture by Pasi Salminen, via SparkCognition

Technological innovation has technically been taking jobs from humans for centuries, Husain points out. Humans replicated the human muscle 鈥� first with the steam engine and later with the internal combustion engine 鈥� which in turn gave birth to the Industrial Revolution. As a result, jobs that required the human beings as a provider of that physical force dissipated over time.

鈥淣ow what we鈥檙e doing is replicating the cognitive abilities of human beings,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd when you think about it, that is what man is 鈥� cognition and muscle. Basically, those are the two big elements. So I think yes when both of these things are replicated, more jobs will be lost, and we are on the path to do that.鈥�

But at the same time, he is not cold about it. For example, while Husain acknowledges the growing use of AI and robotics in the field of healthcare, he acknowledges that machines will never be able to replace 鈥渢he human touch.鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 the analysis part of what the doctor does, the diagnosis part, and then there鈥檚 the actual caregiving,鈥� he noted. 鈥淚 think when it comes to caregiving, people are always going to want the human touch.鈥�

Besides agriculture, manufacturing is another big sector that has already been impacted by robots.

鈥淩obots have completely taken over manufacturing,鈥� he said. 鈥淓ven in low-cost manufacturing destinations like China, they find it more cost effective to buy millions of robots in comparison to keeping relatively lower paid workers around on the factory floor.鈥�

The future of AI will involve more narrow intelligence, Husain believes, which is specialized in certain areas and can exceed human capacity in those areas 颅鈥� but isn鈥檛 broadly as capable as a human being.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 where we are now,鈥� he said. 鈥淥ver the long term as the technology is adopted, most of our present jobs will go away.鈥�

To Husain, the question of whether jobs will go away is moot. He believes the real questions are will we have a way to survive economically and will our needs be fulfilled? Furthermore, will we be able to find satisfaction in the pursuit of some labor that is an expression of our higher gifts and of our traits?

鈥淭he answers to all of those [questions] are yes, we can certainly do that, but it requires a societal agreement鈥攁 rewriting of the social contract,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e will have to to rewrite the economic norms that govern how somebody is considered economically valuable in a society, and in an economy.鈥�

So When?

So if AI is replacing jobs, when will that happen?

At the rate at which AI progress is occurring today, there will likely be some fundamental breakthroughs over the next five to 10 years, Husain predicts.聽鈥淭here will probably be other kinds of tasks that we鈥檒l be able to have machines perform which today they can鈥檛,鈥� he said.

Robotics is similarly progressing at a very fast pace.

鈥淩obots can now do backflips. From a mechanical standpoint, that鈥檚 never been possible before,鈥� Husain said. 鈥淲hen you combine all of these innovations, I think the time is about 15-30 years out, when we鈥檒l actually see almost magical machines that an observer today will look at and say, 鈥榃ow, this is all I imagined in science fiction and maybe then some.鈥� So I think that really is the window.鈥�

And according to to Husain, politicians need to focus more on preparing for these things. If they don鈥檛, it could have serious consequences.

鈥淚f we鈥檙e caught unprepared and we enter this era in a way that is unplanned, then I think we will not be immune from the kinds of destabilizations and disruptions that we have so far only seen on TV unfolding in other parts of the world,鈥� he said. 鈥溾��And unfortunately, when you stress a population, you find that the uglier aspects of human nature start to manifest themselves, and that certainly is not something to look forward to.鈥�

Back To The Numbers

We thought it would be good to get the perspective of a non-AI executive on this controversial topic. So I talked to , chief economist at New York-based to get thoughts from someone outside the industry.

鈥淭echnological unemployment is not anything new,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 been a feature of capitalism over the past 200 years, and there鈥檚 no reason to believe that it鈥檚 likely to stop. In fact, it鈥檚 likely to accelerate.鈥�

For many years, man could not invent the sort of AI or robotics that could conduct routine tasks with regularity and precision.聽鈥淲e are quickly approaching a period where that will occur,鈥� Brusuelas said. 鈥淭hus, there will be some wholesale disruption across different industries.鈥�

However, it seems to Brusuelas that there鈥檚 been too much fanfare 鈥渁bout the imminent end of routine work.鈥澛燞e points to the area of automated vehicles and truck drivers, for example. Truck drivers are the No. 1 employment category for men aged 25-54.

鈥淭he technology is not quite there,鈥� Brusuelas said. 鈥淣ow we should not take solace that it will never be there. Because it will. But policymakers have a chance to think about what the future of work means, and to put in place policy pathways that can facilitate a transition for those that are in work categories more likely to experience significant displacement.鈥�

Today, artificial intelligence goes way beyond the field of home automation and as technologies continue to advance, it鈥檚 likely more jobs will be impacted. But it鈥檚 up to us to determine to what degree, and in what ways this change will occur. Ultimately, it鈥檚 safe to say that planning and preparation are the key to whether artificial intelligence helps, or hurts, our society and economy.

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