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Under The Hood: How Early-Stage Investor Initialized Spots Future Unicorns

Illustration of unicorns in a blessing.

, a co-founder at seed investment firm , became an investor almost by accident. Tan had joined the prestigious startup accelerator in 2010 as a designer in residence and that same year was given a shot at becoming an investor as the program grew.听

Garry Tan, co-founder and general partner at Initialized.

Previously, Tan co-founded , a company that made blogging simple, which was accepted into Y Combinator鈥檚 Summer 2008 program. While an investor at YC, Tan co-founded Initialized in 2012 with , co-founder of , another YC company, along with YC partner . (Ohanian is now a听 board partner at Initialized and has since founded . Taggar rejoined YC as a partner in 2020.)

In the 10 years since Initialized鈥檚 founding, the San Francisco-based firm has racked up an impressive stable of unicorn startups鈥攑rivate companies now valued at $1 billion or more鈥攊n its portfolio.

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Given that it invested in most of those startups when they were just at the seed stage, I decided to sit down and chat with Tan about the firm鈥檚 successful track record, and how his early career at Y Combinator influenced his investment approach at the firm.

An early unicorn hunter

Initialized has 19 portfolio companies it invested in at seed that have since become unicorns, SA国际传媒 data shows, making it one of the most active early investors in future $1 billion-plus startups. That number jumps to 23 companies if you include initial funding at Series A.听

Unicorns in its portfolio include:

  • , a cryptocurrency trading platform valued at around $38 billion as a publicly traded company as of the market close on Feb. 22;
  • Grocery delivery startup , valued at $39 billion;
  • , the self-driving car unicorn that鈥檚 now valued at $30 billion;
  • Freight forwarding company , now valued at $8 billion; and
  • Artist fan base platform , most recently valued at $4 billion.

All of these companies are category-defining in their sector and represent some of the early bets from Initialized鈥檚 first two funds.听

Tan said he knew Cruise co-founder from his YC days, and invested as 鈥渃omputer vision and compute鈥 came together for self-driving technology to be viable.

And Flexport, another YC company, added 鈥渟oftware to a late adopter industry,鈥 Tan said.听

All told, Initialized ranks fourth on SA国际传媒鈥檚 list of most active investors in unicorn portfolio companies at seed, tied with . The only investors that rank with higher counts are Y Combinator, and , though those organizations also invest at much greater volumes at seed.

Investors Seed Portfolio Counts That Are Unicorns As Of Feb 21, 2022.

鈥榃hen it’s not obvious鈥

Initialized has evolved as a firm from its earliest days, when Tan was investing part time out of its first fund of $7 million. Its most recent core fund 6, raised in December 2021, was $530 million alongside an opportunity fund of $170 million.听

These days, the fund has six partners including general partners and , as well as , and . It also has four principals with a new principal, announced earlier this month.听

Prior to fund 6, Initialized only invested at seed. It is now expanding to Series A as well.听

Initialized Core Funds 1 Through 6 2012 To 2020

鈥淓veryone and their mom is fighting over the post million-dollar a year, growing 3x a year startup like it’s shot out of a can,鈥 said Tan. 鈥淓veryone wants to give money to people who don’t need their help.鈥

Initialized likes to invest 鈥渨hen it’s not obvious,鈥 he said, as it did when he first invested in Instacart and Coinbase.听

鈥淲ould we go work there?鈥 is something the Initialized team often asks itself, according to Tan. 鈥淲ould we choose to live in that world?鈥

Tan readily admits that he has seen and missed out on many companies that turned out to be successful. In those cases, he passed on the investment because either the company was later than seed stage, or Initialized moved too slowly as a firm. Other times, an investor doesn鈥檛 win the deal due to poor founder fit.听

The 鈥榗anonical Initialized startup鈥

One of Initialized鈥檚 more recent investments is in , a startup that aims to reduce food waste from 30 percent to 10 percent, and is now in 2,700 grocery stores. The startup analyzes the amount of perishable goods required by a grocer, manages ordering and compensates for waste.听

Tan said the startup is a 鈥渃ase study for the canonical Initialized startup鈥濃攁 company building a product that would make a significant impact mixing a smart business idea with technology.听

鈥淲e got (the founders) to quit their jobs, because we believed in what they’re doing,鈥 he said.

Initialized likes to discover a team early, sometimes even before a company is founded, and prefers to write the first check.听

Shelf Engine co-founder ran a chain of sandwich shops and realized 30 percent of its food ingredients end up in the garbage. With the help of a friend who worked at , he decided to build ordering software that better matched demand and supply.听

They struggled for four years with charging grocers for software until they realized customers 鈥渨ant to buy an outcome, which is lower food waste,鈥 according to Tan.听

On ownership matters

Initialized has invested in some iconic companies, many of which graduated out of YC programs鈥攏ot that surprising given the firm’s ties to the accelerator. In the accelerator鈥檚 early days, YC partners were not discouraged from investing in its program cohorts.听听听

Initialized invested in 鈥淐oinbase before bitcoin was even a thing鈥 and in Instacart 鈥渞ight when this idea of mobile delivery could happen,鈥 said Tan.听

In those early days, Initialized also invested in , Patreon, and more recently in , , and 鈥攁ll companies that have since become unicorns.听

But the proportions it owned were small. In fund 1 and fund 2, it owned around 2 percent. By fund 3鈥攔aised in 2017 after a big time gap from fund 2 raised in 2013鈥攊ts ownership was between 5 percent and 10 percent. By the time it raised fund 4 in 2018, the firm was committed to a minimum 10 percent ownership in its investments.听

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鈥淭here’s no such thing as value investing in venture broadly, but especially at the early stage,鈥 said Tan, who acknowledges that the early-stage funding environment is pretty competitive, which means investors need to move quickly and not ask founders 鈥渢o take a haircut to work with us.鈥澨

The average that Initialized invests is $4.5 million, Tan notes. Only two years ago, its check size was closer to $2.2 million. The company targets a minimum ownership of 10 percent and average of 15 percent, and invests in around 45 companies per two-year fund.听

The firm sets aside half of the first check for pro rata follow-on funding and tries to maintain full pro rata as much as it can.听

It does not lead two rounds in a row, which 鈥渕akes it very straightforward for the rest of the ecosystem,鈥 he said.听听

New investments

Based on an analysis of new versus follow-on investment counts鈥攁n interesting way to understand a seed fund鈥攊t is clear Initialized has become more focused over time investing in fewer companies even as it raised much larger funds.听

Since fund 3 in 2017, it averages 20 new investments per year. Counts in 2021 on the chart are lower, due in part to companies that are still in stealth.听

Initialized Deal Counts, New Vs. Follow-On 2012 to 2021

The Y Combinator connection

Initialized has a strong crossover with YC portfolio companies. Of the 23 unicorns it invested in early, . Around 61 percent of its portfolio of 262 companies is comprised of , per SA国际传媒 data.听

While that鈥檚 striking, Initialized is not the only investor that overlaps heavily with Y Combinator. Other investors that have high counts of YC companies in their portfolio include and .听

SV Angel, which typically invests smaller amounts in lots of companies, has 25 percent of its portfolio matched with YC. FundersClub鈥攚hich is itself a YC company鈥攚ith a model of vetting startups for accredited investors, matches 65 percent of its portfolio with YC, per SA国际传媒 data.听

More than money

Initialized aims to bring much more than cash to the companies it invests in, Tan said. 鈥淲e can write the check,鈥 he said. 鈥淏ut then even more important than writing the check, we help them tell the story, we help them recruit, we help them get customers and we help them raise all the next rounds of capital.鈥

Tan has a that has attracted 200,000 subscribers. That platform has impacted many of Initialized鈥檚 portfolio companies in a positive way, according to Tan: Some executives who have come on the show have used it as a recruiting platform, while others have seen their enterprise sales double based on a single interview.听听听

鈥10x growth鈥

Tan said he鈥檚 witnessed 鈥10x growth in the number of people who are starting companies鈥 in his time as an investor.

There were around 25 startups in a Y Combinator batch in 2010, when Tan was with the accelerator. Last year had more than 300 companies per YC batch.

There are also many more venture capitalists today than there were a decade ago, with firms raising larger funds with less time between raising those funds. And public market investors are also active in the private funding markets.听

Global funding in 2021 was well over $600 billion compared to less than $60 billion in 2012, according to SA国际传媒 data.

鈥淰C itself has grown from $10 billion, $20 billion a year, to more than $100 billion,鈥 Tan said. 鈥淚 think we’re on the way to a trillion dollars a year.鈥

SA国际传媒 Pro queries relevant to this article

 

Clarification: This story was updated to reflect that Initialized co-founder Alexis Ohanian’s current title with the firm is board partner.

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