What You Need To Know About The Dropbox IPO Archives - SA国际传媒 News /tag/dropbox-ipo/ Data-driven reporting on private markets, startups, founders, and investors Wed, 29 Aug 2018 18:51:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.5 /wp-content/uploads/cb_news_favicon-150x150.png What You Need To Know About The Dropbox IPO Archives - SA国际传媒 News /tag/dropbox-ipo/ 32 32 Dropbox Opens At $29 /startups/dropbox-opens-29/ Fri, 23 Mar 2018 15:36:13 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=13397 Morning Report: Dropbox shares opened today at $29, up compared to its IPO price of $21 per share.

This morning Dropbox began its life as a public company worth $29 per share, up听from its IPO price of $21 per share. The result is an obvious victory听for the Y Combinator-backed unicorn.

The company initially set a price range for its shares of $16 to $18, that was raised to $18 to $20. The firm then priced above that level, pushing the aggregate value of its equity closer to the $10 billion mark.

Something to keep in mind is that some estimates of Dropbox’s worth are fully-diluted (inclusive of RSUs, and the like) and some are not. We’ll have a more market-agreed value mark for Dropbox soon enough. (Everyone tends to hew to a single number after an IPO finds its legs).

I hear this company may turn out to be a big deal.

But all that aside, the day is a good one for Dropbox, who showed that a company going public might not get the comp that it wanted (Atlassian), but it also doesn’t have to get the comp that it didn’t want (Box). With a revenue multiple in between the two, Dropbox has now set a new mark for the value of recurring revenue on the public markets.

But all that is over now. The pricing and opening dances are through. Now it’s up to Dropbox to drive growth, find GAAP profitability, fend off the Big 5, and figure out if it has a future in non-file storage productivity tools.

From The听:

Dropbox raises $756M in IPO

  • File sharing and storage unicorn raised the price of its shares to $21 as the company preps for its market debut this morning. The 11-year-old company sold 36 million shares, raising $756 million.

Blockchain Capital closes $150M fund

  • , a San Francisco-based venture capital firm that focuses on blockchain tech and crypto, closed a $150 million fund, bringing total assets under management to $250 million. To date, the five-year-old firm has invested in 72 companies and tokens.

  • , a Beijing-based auto startup, has reportedly raised $473 million and is planning to build electric vehicles through a joint venture with Chinese ride-hailing leader Didi Chuxing.
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Dropbox Prices IPO Above Expectations At $21 /public/dropbox-prices-ipo-expectations-21/ Thu, 22 Mar 2018 22:46:35 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=13393 , the file storage and sharing application popular with consumers, raised the price of its shares to $21.00, according to a source cited .

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Dropbox is set to make its public market debut tomorrow, Friday. The offering is 25-times oversubscribed, according to听CNBC‘s source.

Over the past couple of days, Dropbox has raised the target price of its shares fairly significantly. Just a couple of days ago, Dropbox 听saying that its shares will sell for between $18 and $20, which was itself up from the $16 to $18 range set forth in the original filing.

If Dropbox shares hit public markets at $21, as听CNBC‘s source suggests, the company will be valued at around $8.2 billion, which is still down from its last private market valuation of 听according to SA国际传媒 data.

Still though, at this new price, Dropbox raised $750 million from investors.

滨濒濒耻蝉迟谤补迟颈辞苍:听

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Dropbox Upgrades Its IPO Valuation, Inching Closer To Even /startups/dropbox-upgrades-ipo-valuation-inching-closer-even/ Wed, 21 Mar 2018 16:14:29 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=13367 Morning Report: Let’s examine the new Dropbox valuation and try to understand what it means for the popular unicorn.

Things are moving in Dropbox’s direction this week ahead of the firm’s IPO. The cloud storage unicorn is expected to price tomorrow evening and commence trading Friday morning.

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Indeed, , the company’s new IPO share price range is $18 to $20, up from $16 to $18. Given the firm’s expected, full share count after its offering Dropbox would be worth $7.85 billion and with its greenshoe offering $7.96 billion. Both those figures were calculated using the $20 per share figure.

(Note: While the media agrees that the non-diluted value of Dropbox will land around $7.85 billion at the upper end of its share price range, some a fully-diluted value of around $9.0 billion.)

Dropbox could still price above or below that mark, but to see the firm raise its price target implies strong demand for its shares. Indeed, the company’s IPO is reportedly oversubscribed.

So what can we learn from this? Mostly that what happened to Box isn’t bringing Dropbox down. Indeed, according to Yahoo Finance, Box has a of 6.1, calculated on a trailing basis. With its new $7.9 billion valuation, Dropbox would be worth about 7.2 times its trailing revenue.

It’s a premium, albeit a small one. However, it’s worth noting that Box has largely recovered from its post-earnings听shellacking. Just in time, really, for Dropbox to go public. In this environment, Dropbox now looks less expensive, comparatively, than it did when Box shares fell under $19 per share earlier this month. They are now back over $22.

The Dropbox pricing dance also comes as MuleSoft found a large exit to Salesforce, but we’ll get to that next.

For now, it’s a good day for Dropbox and its various shareholders. If it can carry the momentum through to early trading, the company could wind up within spitting distance of its 2014 valuation.

From The听:

  • Salesforce will pay $6.5 billion to acquire MuleSoft, a provider of enterprise software for connecting applications, data and devices. The deal provides a 36 percent premium over the recent public valuation of San Francisco-based MuleSoft, a former venture-backed unicorn that carried out one of the most successful IPOs of 2017.

Khosla Ventures files plans to raise $1.4B

  • Silicon Valley VC firm Khosla Ventures is looking to raise $1.4 billion across two new funds, according to securities filings. One will be a $1 billion fund investing across stages, while the other will be a $400 million fund focused on seed deals.

  • Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick will reportedly be taking on a new role as CEO of City Storage Systems, a startup focused on redevelopment of distressed real estate. In conjunction with the move, Kalanick鈥檚 fund will invest $150 million to take a controlling interest in the company.

Here are the top Midwestern spots for startups

  • Across the Midwest, the amount of money being invested in startups is on the rise, even though deal volume is down markedly. A SA国际传媒 News analysis finds Chicago and Minneapolis generate the most investment and deals, but other metro areas are moving up the ranks.
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Dropbox Sets Reasonable IPO Price Range /startups/dropbox-sets-reasonable-ipo-price-range/ Mon, 12 Mar 2018 13:20:39 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=13264 Morning Report: Dropbox set an initial price range for it impending IPO. Here’s what we now know.

This morning Dropbox, the popular file storage company, for its initial public offering. The company’s IPO now has the usual host of numbers: 36 million shares on offer, a 5.4 million underwriter green-shoe offering, a $16-$18 per-share price range, a maximum initial sale of $648 million at the upper end of its range and a fully-cocked $745.2 million bill including the green-shoe shares.

Of the 36 million shares on offer, 26.8 million shares will come from the company in its debut, along with 9.2 million from extant shareholders.

And all that values the firm where, precisely? Welcome to the IPO dance, as it turns out, the numbers vary:

  • : “At the midpoint of that range, the company would be valued at roughly $7.5 billion, factoring in restricted stock units and options. That is down from its most recent valuation of $10 billion from previous private investors.”
  • : “At the high end of that range, Dropbox would have a market value of about $7.1 billion, based on the number of shares outstanding after the offering. Including restricted stock units, the valuation would be about $7.6 billion.”
  • : ” Data-sharing business Dropbox Inc (DBX.O) on Monday filed for an initial public offering of 36 million shares, giving the company a value of more than $7 billion at the higher end of the range.”
  • pegs the value of Dropbox at IPO under listed terms on a diluted basis between $7 and $7.9 billion, but that publication also doesn’t like it听very much when you try to quote it. So I’m writing this out instead.
  • : “The IPO pricing values the company at between $7 billion and nearly $8 billion when you factor in restricted stock units.”
  • : “Dropbox Inc. set a valuation target between $7 billion and nearly $8 billion ahead of its initial public offering, which is set to be one of the biggest tech IPOs in the past few years.”
  • : “Dropbox Inc. set terms for an initial public offering Monday that values the company as high as $8 billion. […]听On a nondiluted basis, the company is valued around $6.7 billion, which is a closer comparison to what the company’s market capitalization will be when the shares begin trading next week.”
  • : “The San Francisco-based file storage and sharing company would have a fully-diluted market value of around $7.9 billion, were it to price at the top of its range. That’s not inclusive of shares reserved for future issuance under equity compensation plans 鈥 some of which would become effective prior to the IPO. Were those shares included, the high-mark climbs to around $9.9 billion.”

So, a host of answers that peg the firm between the low and high 7s, and some numbers as high as $8 billion with Axios providing a very interesting figure; it would be cosmetically brilliant for Dropbox to be able to nearly claim a non-down IPO.

Regardless, the value of the firm seems to be generally pegged at around $7.5 billion, so long as we trail that initial figure with a host of caveats, including the fact that we are looking at a proposed range and not the final value of the firm. At the same time, SA国际传媒 News did some work after Dropbox filed and came up with a little guess as to what the firm might be worth using Box as a market cognate:

So that went well, but it ended built a bit on false premises. Indeed, after we published that piece Box missed its forecast and was dramatically repriced by the public markets. That undercut the above-quoted math that we used to generate a $7.5 billion valuation estimate for Dropbox. However, the firm is still shooting for roughly that valuation.

So, Dropbox is effectively pricing itself at Box’s pre-correction ARR multiple, meaning that it will get a premium to Box that it nearly certainly wanted. Just perhaps not the interval it had originally anticipated.

Update: Amended the Axios quote to a longer riff.

From The听:

  • We’re beating the SA国际传媒 Daily out today. Blurbs will be added when they pop out of the toaster.
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2018 Is The Year Of The Unicorn: Inside Dropbox鈥檚 S-1 /business/2018-year-unicorn-inside-dropboxs-s-1/ Sat, 24 Feb 2018 00:27:41 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=13101 We’ve been waiting for this one for a long time.

Today, Dropbox publicly on its path to the public markets, detailing its historical financial performance and providing a wealth of information for investors and the market alike. Dropbox famously raised just over during its life, reaching a $4.05 billion post-money valuation in 2014 after .

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The firm’s SEC filing indicates that it may raise up to $500 million in its debut, a number that is likely a placeholder.

In brief, Dropbox’s revenue rose over $1 billion in 2017, growing over 30 percent. The firm’s net loss (GAAP) fell to just over $100 million, or about half over the same period. Notably, in 2017, even as its revenue grew, Dropbox’s cost of revenue fell.

You can see its high-level performance detailed in the following chart:

The firm, as we have long known, generates cash. Quite a lot of it, as it turns out. The firm generated free cash flow of more than $300 million in 2017.

Dropbox’s financials paint the portrait of a sound SaaS player looking to go public when it doesn’t need the cash, with a history of improving operating metrics and cash generation. Underscoring the latter point, if you strip out its share-based compensation costs and Dropbox has positive earnings per share. And with historical rival Box trading near all-time highs, the Y Combinator-backed Dropbox has picked its moment well.

Let’s explore its filing in detail.

Broad Financial Results

In 2017, Dropbox had revenue of $1.11 billion, up 31 percent from its 2016 result of $844.8 million. From 2015 to 2016, for comparison, the company grew over 39 percent.

Dropbox grew its gross profit more quickly than its revenue in the last year, pushing that figure from a $454.2 million in 2016 to $737.9 million in 2017. Dropbox’s ability to expand its gross margins while also growing its top line is impressive.

The firm’s operating costs grew from $647.7 million in 2016 to $851.6 million in 2017, inclusive of share-based compensation. Throw in an $11 million interest expense, and Dropbox’s GAAP net loss came to $111.7 million in 2017. That figure was down sharply from its 2016 GAAP net loss of $210.2 million.

Dropbox spent $147.6 million on share-based compensation in 2016, and $164.6 million on the same in 2017. If you remove that cost from the firm’s costs, it generates positive, adjusted earnings per share. Investors will likely听observe that figure, as well as its more traditional, fully-loaded GAAP EPS result in ensuing earnings calls.

Dropbox reports $430 million in cash and equivalents on hand in its S-1. That taken into account with its $305 million in free cash flow in 2017, it’s obvious that the company isn’t hurting for dollars on its balance sheet.

Finally on the cash question, here’s the firm’s notes on its end-of-year debt makeup:

As of December 31, 2017, we had no amounts outstanding under the revolving credit facility and an aggregate of $82.6听million in letters of credit outstanding under the revolving credit facility. Our total available borrowing capacity under the revolving credit facility was $517.4听million as of December 31, 2017.

Throw in an IPO-haul and Dropbox is very well capitalized.

User Metrics

Dropbox highlights its over 500 million registered users, only 11 million 鈥 or 2.2 percent 鈥 of which pay to use the platform.听 According to the filing, the number of paying users has grown from 6.5 million as of the end of 2015 to its current reported 11 million level at the end of 2017.

Net Neutrality Looms Large As Risk Factor

Moving past the raw numbers, Dropbox’s filing contains the usual host of other details.

The filing, for example, mentions net neutrality, albeit obliquely. Any future changes to how bandwidth and other measures of internet use are billed may pose a potential risk to the company, according to the document. The company lists a number of potential factors that could raise operating expenses and degrade user retention “if network operators:

  • implement usage-based pricing; discount pricing for competitive products;
  • otherwise materially change their pricing rates or schemes;
  • charge us to deliver our traffic at certain levels or at all;
  • throttle traffic based on its source or type;
  • implement bandwidth caps or other usage restrictions; or otherwise try to monetize or control access to their networks.”

These risks are at the center of public concern over the US’s repeal of net neutrality rules, something that is underway during the Trump administration.

Concentration Of Voting Power

Dropbox will retain a multi-class share structure with differing voting rights. As it says in the filing:

Our Class A common stock, which is the stock we are offering in this offering, has one vote per share, our Class B common stock has ten votes per share, and our Class C common stock has no voting rights, except as otherwise required by law.

This is a similar voting structure to the one Facebook and some other technology companies have implemented in the past. This concentrates voting power in the hands of whomever holds the Class B shares, which in this case, are preferred shareholders.

The filing states that “[t]his concentrated control will limit or preclude your ability to influence corporate matters for the foreseeable future, including the election of directors, amendments of our organizational documents and any merger, consolidation, sale of all or substantially all of our assets, or other major corporate transaction requiring stockholder approval.”

Class B shares will be eligible for sale on a public stock market after the 181 day lockup period is over. However, despite saying that it “may” offer these shares for sale on an open market, there appears to be no concrete intention to do so.

What’s It Worth?

Taking all of that in mind, what is Dropbox worth? The firm’s revenue is impressive, as are its profitability metrics compared to some other SaaS players. But if its results are rosy enough for the firm to defend its $10 billion valuation is the next question it will face.

Box, a traditional rival, has enjoyed a recent run in the public markets, pushing its trailing price-sales multiple to 6.62. Using that same metric, Dropbox is worth about $7.4 billion. If you are willing to give it a premium for any particular reason or another, say, its growth pace, add another x to the figure.

At Box’s trailing price-sales plus one, Dropbox is worth $8.5 billion or so. That’s still 15 percent off its 2014 valuation. Presumably, those investors got a bit ahead of themselves. But Dropbox has managed to do what some doubted, and grow either into its valuation, or something damn close to it.

How investors price Dropbox equity will set a new benchmark in the world of SaaS. If it can command a healthy multiples premium to other SaaS players, we’ll also pick up good metrics regarding precisely what investors are willing to pay more than average for.

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Decoding Dropbox鈥檚 Value Ahead Of Its IPO /public/decoding-dropboxs-value-ahead-ipo/ Mon, 22 Jan 2018 17:08:29 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=12715 Morning Report:Let’s take another look at Dropbox’s value through the prism of secondary transactions.

After news broke that had privately filed to go public, we took a swing at what it figuring out what it might be worth at the time of its debut.

The short answer was that the popular file sharing and productivity company probably wouldn’t reach the $10 billion mark, given what we know about its revenue, growth, and profitability. Dropbox famously picked up a $10 billion price tag during an in 2014.

But public market comps are only so good, as companies are only so analogous. In that vein, The Information that we need to consider. In short, they detail what investors are willing to pay for Dropbox stock ahead of its IPO.

Regarding Dropbox’s听current private valuation, as divined through the illiquid, private market, here is the gist:

A few secondary market transactions also have valued Dropbox below $10 billion, though trades show that the company has begun to recover from the public beating it took in 2015 over concerns it was growing at an unsustainable rate. Bidding interest is increasing, brokers said, with prices in the range of $13 to $15 per share, equivalent to a $7 billion to $8 billion valuation.

The $7 billion to $8 billion range caught our eye as it lands precisely where we wound up valuing Dropbox using publicly available data. To wit: “Having done all that [work to come up with a valuation number], we can gist out that Dropbox, at a $1.3 billion ARR pace, would be worth $7.5 billion.”

To be completely frank, if we can noodle that number out before our second coffee, real market kids are getting a more precise figure before their commute. So it could be that there is some general听expected consensus regarding Dropbox’s potential public value.

Of course, until we know its gross margin direction, the growth of its enterprise business, revenue mix, and a host of other numbers, everyone is guessing.

 

From The听:

Tencent, Alibaba-backed rounds continue surge

  • Tencent and Alibaba are playing an increasingly weighty role in China鈥檚 startup ecosystem. The two companies have participated in more than 400 known funding rounds over the years, a SA国际传媒 News analysis finds, with activity levels hitting an all-time high in 2017.

  • Uber wants to make its own food. That, apparently, is the logic behind the company鈥檚 newest acquisition, of听, a delivery-only prepared food startup launched two years ago by a prominent New York restaurant entrepreneur. The ride-hailing giant plans to integrate Ando into its Uber Eats platform.

  • , developer of a popular app for embellishing selfies, has reportedly raised $50 million in fresh funding from SoftBank and Sequoia China. Launched as a standalone startup in 2016, Korea-based Snow was started by Naver, the firm behind the messaging app Line.

New York heats up as fintech hub

  • It鈥檚 been a strong start to 2018 for New York City鈥檚 burgeoning fintech scene, with sizable rounds for alternative credit card issuer听听and personal finance platform听. Industry insiders predict the momentum will continue.
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After Reportedly Filing Privately To Go Public, What Is Dropbox Worth? /startups/reportedly-filing-privately-go-public-dropbox-worth/ Thu, 11 Jan 2018 18:50:31 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/?post_type=news&p=12613 According , Dropbox has confidentially听filed to go public. The firm intends to list in the first half of 2018.

The news makes it the second well-known unicorn to have filed paperwork for a 2018听debut, with Spotify in the hopper since December of last year.

Last July, I when it was reported that the firm was looking for bankers to help with the transaction.

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To say that Dropbox’s public offering is long-expected would be an understatement.

Even more, Dropbox’s impending IPO raises a host of questions concerning the popular filesharing and productivity company: How well has it managed its move into the enterprise space, and how dependent does it remain on consumer revenue; how close is it to GAAP profits after reporting ; and how much of its can be counted as trailing top line?

Those metrics will help set the company’s value, last pegged at $10 billion 听raised in 2014.

What the firm will be worth in a public offering is a parlor game for Silicon Valley.

After all, Dropbox is a bit of a bellwether for the current crop of unicorns: it’s been private for longer than historical norms (Dropbox was founded in 2007.), richly valued, and has a . Its path to an IPO could draw up a path for other firms of its vintage and value.

But what might Dropbox be worth? Let’s list what we know.

Dropbox’s Numbers

As previously linked, Dropbox announced that it reached the $1 billion recurring revenue milestone in January of 2017. We’re calling that the firm’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) result for simplicity. It’s likely close.

If the firm had reached the threshold that particular day or week is unlikely. But it seems fair to say that in the opening weeks of 2017, Dropbox reached the $83.3 million-per-month revenue mark.

But that was merely one of the firm’s most-recent financial dispatches. As I :

  • July 2016: Dropbox is听.
  • January 2017: Dropbox 鈥.鈥
  • March 2017: Dropbox secures听$600 million credit line.
  • April 2017: Dropbox听, also subtracting share-based compensation expenses.

When you draw a line through those particular points on a graph, the slope points to an IPO, making today’s news hardly surprising.

Previously, we did , at the $1 billion ARR mark, what Dropbox would be worth using a market comp’s (Box) own revenue multiple. However, it is now just about a year since the firm announced the $1 billion figure. So we need to push it up by Dropbox’s growth rate and then re-run the math.

So, how quickly is Dropbox growing? According to , this quickly (emphasis added):

Market value remains the focus of the increased scrutiny. In 2014, when backers last invested, they agreed Dropbox was worth $10 billion. People familiar with the company鈥檚 financials say it could top that mark in an IPO, but that may be a tough sell. Still, they say, annual revenue growth is enviable, about 30 percent. Dropbox declined to comment.

This helps quite a lot, as it allows us to better estimate Dropbox’s current ARR pace, and, thus, get a crack at its valuation.

In short, we’ll take the firm’s revenue, boost it by the above-reported growth pace, and then slap Box’s comparable听revenue (ARR) multiple to get a decent handle on what Dropbox might be worth. We will presume similar profitability metrics and growth pace, which we’ll handicap directly afterwards.

Here is where that leaves us:

  • Dropbox January 2017 ARR: $1 billion.
  • Dropbox mid-year reported growth rate: ~30 percent.
  • Dropbox January 2018 ARR estimate: $1.3 billion.
  • Box market cap January 11, 2018: $3.03 billion.
  • Box’s : $129.3 million.
  • Implied Box ARR: $517.2 million.1
  • Rough Box ARR multiple: 5.8x.

Having done all that, we can gist out that Dropbox, at a $1.3 billion ARR pace, would be worth $7.5 billion.

That is far under its previously-noted $10 billion private valuation. (A testament, perhaps, to private-market investors pre-buying growth a bit too far out in the future at the time.) However, it remains a healthy sum. Early backers of the firm will do incredibly well at that price, it would seem.

Box’s Kindness

Something to keep in mind in the above is how far Box has recently recovered in the public markets, something that has taken quite a lot of stress off of Dropbox.

Box traded under $10 per share in 2016. The firm, now pennies under $22 per share, has seen its equity dramatically rebound. Of course, over the ensuing time period, Box has grown as well. But its revenue multiple has undoubtedly improved.

And that’s good for Dropbox. If the still-private company deserves a premium to Box’s metrics remains to be seen. The numbers will bear that out. But if Box was trading at its prior multiples, it would have been a far heavier lift to reach a public-market valuation that it would have liked.

The math seems to imply that Dropbox is worth billions of dollars, but perhaps a few billion under its last private valuation. But what we don’t know is how far the firm has gone towards profits and how much growth it can jam into the next quarter or two.

  1. We don’t have monthly Box revenue data, so we’re using is most recent quarterly revenue figure, times four, to get an annual number. Of course, not every dollar of Box’s top line recurs, but it’s about as close as we can get for a publicly traded security, in Dropbox’s market space, of similar size, that has mostly recurring revenue. So we’re doing our best.

滨濒濒耻蝉迟谤补迟颈辞苍:听

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As Public Markets Test New Highs, Dropbox Said To Commence IPO Prep /startups/public-markets-test-new-highs-dropbox-said-commence-ipo-prep/ Mon, 03 Jul 2017 00:00:00 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/news/public-markets-test-new-highs-dropbox-said-commence-ipo-prep/ After quite a , a , , , and a , Dropbox may be finally on the path to going public.

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According to , the cloud storage — and I’m sure it would prefer us to add enterprise productivity shop — company is “seeking to hire underwriters for an initial public offering that could come later this year.”

The same article continues, saying that Dropbox’s IPO could be “the biggest U.S. technology company to go public since Snap Inc” according to “people familiar with the matter.” We care about those two lines in particular as they give us what we crave most when it comes to future IPOs: timing and scale.

More simply, if all that bears out, we know when the year ends, and we know how large Snap’s IPO was, so we have effectively constrained Dropbox’s potential debut twice.

But what you care about is revenue and valuation, so let’s give you what you desire.

Revenue, Cashflow, Fake Profit, Real Losses

TechCrunch听wrote a piece earlier this year concerning Dropbox鈥檚 2017 disclosures relating to its financial performance with the following headline: 鈥.鈥

That鈥檚 perfect, and I can鈥檛 improve on it. At the same time, let鈥檚 remind ourselves what Dropbox disclosed, on purpose or not, in this past year:

  • July 2016: Dropbox is听.
  • January 2017: Dropbox 鈥.鈥
  • March 2017: Dropbox secures new,听.
  • April 2017: Dropbox听, also subtracting share-based compensation expenses.

And now, in July, the company is said to be working toward its IPO.

We go over all of that not to bore each other, but to find what matters to draw a comparison. Recall that Box remains, for better or for worse, the best public market comp for Dropbox. And if we are going to compare revenues and valuations to find answers, we need to understand revenue quality.

What’s That Worth?

Dropbox’s $1 billion result is not trailing. Here are the company’s : “Dropbox is proud to announce that our business has surpassed $1 billion in revenue run rate.”

That omits the usual language employed by software as a service (SaaS) companies to describe their revenue, namely monthly and annual recurring revenue (MRR and ARR, respectively).

But as Dropbox compares itself directly to other SaaS shops like Salesforce in the same blog post, companies that generate billions in recurring revenue, we are likely in good shape to derive an ARR number from Dropbox’s $1 billion figure.

So let’s give Dropbox a $1 billion ARR result in the first quarter. That, unless my brain is extra mushy, works out to a $250 million recurring revenue result in the first quarter of this year. (We’re working very loosely here, as private companies are damn shy. However, I hope you agree that we’re operating in good faith today.)

That gives us a working set of metrics for Dropbox: $250 million in first-quarter revenue and free cash-flow positive. It later tacks on EBITDA positivity.

Now, let鈥檚 observe Box鈥檚听, which ended April 30, 2017:

  • Revenue: $117 million.
  • Operating and free cash flow: Both positive.
  • EBITDA status: Negative.

Box is smaller than Dropbox, hit free cashflow positive earlier than Dropbox, and grew by 30 percent year-over-year. We don’t have Dropbox’s relative growth rate, but we can see enough crossover between the two companies’ results to derive and inference or two.

So what’s Box’s revenue worth? Its current revenue multiple (trailing) . That comes down to 5.2 if you calculate its full-year revenue using its last quarter multiplied by four. We could lower it again by using a forward-revenue denominator, but let’s not be rude.

Regardless, that helps quite a bit. Presuming that Dropbox’s growth is in the ballpark of Box’s, we can quickly apply Box’s 5.2x revenue multiple to Dropbox’s $1 billion revenue pace and, voil脿, Dropbox is worth around 听$5.2 billion.

Now, we can amend that result by noting that Dropbox is EBITDA positive, while Box is not. That’s points in Dropbox’s direction. And if it is growing more quickly than Box, it will get a bit more market respect from Wall Street. Finally, given its longer history of cashflow positivity, the firm could simply have a stronger balance sheet, improving its inherent worth, and thus its market cap.

We’ll have to see. Meanwhile, it’s notable Dropbox is going public at. A boom, really, and even after all that work, may be forced to go public for a smaller valuation than its last private price tag.

That brings us back to our opening lines:

The same article continues, saying that Dropbox’s IPO could be “the biggest U.S. technology company to go public since Snap Inc” according to “people familiar with the matter.” We care about those two lines in particular as they give us what we crave most when it comes to future IPOs: timing and scale.

And now big was that IPO? Here’s :

Snap听Inc. priced听its听initial public offering on Wednesday at听$17 per share, giving听the company a valuation听of $23.6 billion. Snap, which created the popular messaging app Snapchat,听and听selling stakeholders reportedly offloaded200 million shares, raising $3.4 billion听in the tech industry’s largest IPO since 2014.

Given the scale of the Snap debut, it doesn’t provide the best possible outer-boundary. But that’s about all the work we can do with what we have. More as we can.

滨濒濒耻蝉迟谤补迟颈辞苍:听

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Morning Report: Dropbox Picks Up New Credit Line Ahead Of IPO Rumors (Again) /business/morning-report-dropbox-picks-new-credit-line-ahead-ipo-rumors/ Thu, 30 Mar 2017 00:00:00 +0000 http://news.crunchbase.com/news/morning-report-dropbox-picks-new-credit-line-ahead-ipo-rumors/ Morning Report: Dropbox is in the process of opening a $600 million credit line ahead of its IPO. It’s not the first time it’s done this, and the move mirrors Twitter’s actions right before its own IPO.

Dropbox is working to open a $600 million credit line, , who reports that the deal should wrap up on Monday. The facility, according to the report, provides “flexibility as the cloud-storage company explores a public offering as soon as this year.”

Bloomberg goes on to note that this isn’t the first time that Dropbox has dealt with such a facility. Indeed, going back in time to 2014, :

Look carefully. That story isn’t from this morning; it’s from over three years ago.

If it feels slightly surreal that we are again discussing Dropbox as an IPO candidate in relation to a new debt facility, here’s :

Tech is, as always, a flat circle.

Regardless, this time around, it appears Dropbox has a credible shot at going public. Its revenue numbers and profit benchmarks are out in the media, and its听on-again, off-again rival Box has rebounded in the public market, giving Dropbox valuation breathing room from a comp perspective.

The real question now is when Dropbox will actually go public. Now seems reasonable enough, with markets at record highs and public investors showing an appetite for yet-unprofitable tech companies. Then again, Dropbox might want just a few more quarters to grow. I’m not currently hearing credible thoughts in either direction, at least recently.

One last historical mote from that aged CNBC piece for taste:

Back then Twitter was more than three times as much per share. How quickly the fallen.

Today in the :

Rover and DogVacay merge

  • and , the two largest online platforms for finding dog sitters, are merging into one. Six-year-old Rover did not disclose how much it is paying to acquire DogVacay, a competitor that launched around the same time but lagged in market share. Santa Monica, Calif.-based DogVacay previously raised $47 million in venture funding, roughly half what Seattle-based Rover has received to date.

Looker raises $82M for data analytics

  • Data analytics provider announced that it has round led by CapitalG, Alphabet鈥檚 growth investment fund, bringing total funding to date to more than $175 million. Geodesic Capital and Goldman Sachs joined the round, along with several existing investors.

Ad giants and ISPs shake off broadband privacy rollback

  • The US Congress鈥檚 vote this week to stop implementation of Obama-era privacy protection rules for broadband subscribers doesn鈥檛 seem to be impacting Wall Street鈥檚 perception of ISPs or advertising and e-commerce giants. Investors in ISPs, big search, social networking, and online retailers have seemingly shrugged off the rule changes, according to a .

Follow us on Twitter

  • At SA国际传媒, we are putting our startup data to use. Follow the intersection of money, tech, and startups over on our new Twitter account @.

 

via Flickr user under CC BY 2.0. Image has been cropped.
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